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In the present work, a precipitation and temperature series from Barcelona (Spain) are analysed in order to detect the possible existence of climatic changes or cycles. The analysis is carried out both from the temporal and spectral standpoints. The techniques used range from the classical periodogram and Blackman-Tukey method through to the Maximum Entropy method. The results do not show the existence of climatic cycles, though they do show a clear tendency toward increased precipitation and decreased temperature, since the last years of series. 相似文献
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Maria Cortès Maria Carmen Llasat Joan Gilabert Montserrat Llasat-Botija Marco Turco Raül Marcos Juan Pedro Martín Vide Lluís Falcón 《Natural Hazards》2018,93(1):39-60
This contribution explores the evolution of the flood risk in the Metropolitan Area of Barcelona (MAB; Northeast Spain) from 1981 to 2015, and how it has been affected by changes in land use, population and precipitation. To complete this study, we analysed PRESSGAMA and INUNGAMA databases to look for all the information related to the floods and flash floods that have affected the chosen region. The “Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros”, a state insurance company for extraordinary risks, provided data on economic damage. The extreme precipitation trend was analysed by the Fabra Observatory and El Prat-Airport Observatory, and daily precipitation data were provided by the State Meteorological Agency of Spain (AEMET) and the Meteorological Service of Catalonia (SMC). Population data were obtained from the Statistical Institute of Catalonia (IDESCAT). Changes in land use were estimated from the land use maps for Catalonia corresponding to 1956, 1993, 2000, 2005 and 2009. Prevention measures like rainwater tanks and improvements to the drainage system were also been considered. The specific case of Barcelona is presented, a city recognised by United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction as a model city for urban resilience to floods. The evolution of flood events in the MAB does not show any significant trend for this period. We argue that the evolution in floods can be explained, at least in part, by the lack of trend in extreme precipitation indices, and also by the improvements in flood prevention measures. 相似文献
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A study of the synoptic situation which produced the catastrophic floods of November 1988 in Catalonia (in the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula) is presented. Analyses of the vertical structure, potential instability, precipitable water, and instability index are made through the radiosounding data from Palma, Majorca. It is found that the 1988 situation is included in type I intense convective events in Catalonia (classification obtained from all the events since 1950, (Llasat, 1989)). It was characterized by:
相似文献
| (a) | -pattern in the middle and high troposphere, the ridge axis east of Catalonia. |
| (b) | High pressure over Europe. |
| (c) | South-easterly winds in the lower troposphere with warm and moist humid air advection and south-westerlies aloft over Catalonia. |
| (d) | Strong instability (convective and latent). |
| (e) | Penetration of Atlantic air. |
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The study of climatic anomalies on the basis of various types of instrumental information and proxy-data allows unusual events to be identified. The objective of this paper is to introduce and explain a hydrometeorological anomaly that occurred between 1760 and 1800 (Maldá Anomaly), characterised by a sequence of both anomalous droughts and floods, and to compare it with the features of the second part of the 20th century. Firstly, some climatic indices obtained from proxy-data (mainly documentary sources) have been generated. Secondly, instrumental observations made in earlier times, in conjunction with data from the bibliography, have been used in order to relate this period to the different circulation patterns and to analyse the geographical extension of the anomaly. The results confirm the presence of considerable variations in the atmospheric action centres, especially between 1780 and 1795, which in the Western Mediterranean gave rise to a simultaneous increase in the frequency of droughts and heavy rainfalls, either having nothing comparable or sharing similarities with periods in the 19th and 20th centuries. 相似文献
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Based on analysis techniques including homogeneity testsand anomalies and trend analysis, a methodology was developed and applied to nine long monthlyrainfall series of the Peninsular Spain (1859–1997). Lying on the basis of a previousspatial regionalization, these series are considered to be representative for this area. Afterstudying the main features of their temporal evolution on a regional scale, results have been comparedto those procured by other studies within the AMHY/FRIEND project of UNESCO for otherMediterranean regions. The conclusions show that there is no significant trendin the series. On the contrary, a common dry period for whole Spain between 1935 and 1955 thatcoincides with a negative anomaly affecting the Western Mediterranean has been found. 相似文献
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Summary Cold pools over Europe and the surrounding seas during the years 1974 to 1983 are briefly analysed regarding their seasonal and geographical distribution as well as their motion, size and other features. Certain criteria are established to identify cold pools. 486 of these have been observed, with a modal life of two days and mean diameters ranging from 5 to 10 degrees of latitude. Usually they reach the 300-hPa level and about half of them appear to form behind a cold front. Preferred areas for cold pool genesis are generally associated with either high ground or warm seas. These areas shift from the eastern Atlantic in spring to a poorly defined distribution in summer, whereas in autumn and winter preferred areas shift southwards to the Mediterranean Sea. The pools generylly follow complicated and irregular tracks. Path lengths are variable and depend on the place of birth and the time of the year.With 5 Figures 相似文献
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M. Puigcerver S. Alonso J. Lorente M. C. Llasat A. Redaño A. Burgueño E. Vilar 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》1986,37(1-2):97-109
Summary A series of charts of rainfall rates recorded by means of a Jardí pluviograph in Barcelona, Spain, and covering a period of 20 years have been digitised. The time intervals of exceedance of certain pre-set rainfall rate thresholds were computed and expressed in percentages of the whole 20-year period. The average worst month period and the absolute worst month were defined and computed. Results are found to agree well with those obtained elsewhere in Southern Europe; they are also compared with some published results for Kew. Frequency-distribution of rates as well as time of occurrence are presented. Rainfall amounts pertaining to several rainfall rate categories have been analysed in order to obtain the ratio of convective to total rainfall amount. Comparison of this ratio with results of some other authors is inconclusive.
With 7 Figures 相似文献
Zusammenfassung Eine Anzahl von Tabellen über Niederschlagsraten, die in Barcelona (Spanien) durch einen Jardí Niederschlagsmesser über eine Zeitspanne von 20 Jahren aufgezeichnet wurden, werden bearbeitet. Die Andauer von gewissen festliegenden Niederschlagsraten wurde berechnet und in Prozenten von der gesamten 20jährigen Zeitspanne ausgedrückt. Die durchschnittliche Dauer im schlechtesten Monat, sowie der absolut schlechteste Monat werden definiert und berechnet. Die Ergebnisse stimmen im allgemeinen mit solchen anderer südeuropäischer Gebiete überein; sie werden mit schon veröffentlichten Ergebnissen aus Kew verglichen. Häufigkeits- als auch Verteilungsraten sowie die Eintrittszeit der Ereignisse werden angegeben. Die Niederschlagsmengen, die jeweils zu verschiedenen Niederschlagsraten gehören, wurden analysiert, um das Verhältnis des konvektiven zum gesamten Niederschlag zu ermitteln. Ein Vergleich dieses Verhältnisses mit den Ergebnissen anderer Autoren sind noch nicht abgeschlossen.
With 7 Figures 相似文献
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Large biases and inconsistent climate change signals in ENSEMBLES regional projections 总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0
Marco Turco Antonella Sanna Sixto Herrera Maria-Carmen Llasat José Manuel Gutiérrez 《Climatic change》2013,120(4):859-869
In this paper we analyze some caveats found in the state-of-the-art ENSEMBLES regional projections dataset focusing on precipitation over Spain, and highlight the need of a task-oriented validation of the GCM-driven control runs. In particular, we compare the performance of the GCM-driven control runs (20C3M scenario) with the ERA40-driven ones (“perfect” boundary conditions) in a common period (1961–2000). Large deviations between the results indicate a large uncertainty/bias for the particular RCM-GCM combinations and, hence, a small confidence for the corresponding transient simulations due to the potential nonlinear amplification of biases. Specifically, we found large biases for some RCM-GCM combinations attributable to RCM in-house problems with the particular GCM coupling. These biases are shown to distort the corresponding climate change signal, or “delta”, in the last decades of the 21st century, considering the A1B scenario. Moreover, we analyze how to best combine the available RCMs to obtain more reliable projections. 相似文献
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Cort&#;s Maria Llasat Maria Carmen Gilabert Joan Llasat-Botija Montserrat Turco Marco Marcos Ra&#;l Mart&#;n Vide Juan Pedro Falc&#;n Llu&#;s 《Natural Hazards》2017,85(1):39-57
Dam failure constitutes a grave threat to human life. However, there is still a lack of systematic and comprehensive research on the loss of life (L) caused by dam break in China. From the perspective of protecting human life, a new calculation method for L occurred in dam break floods is put forward. Fourteen dam failure cases in China are selected as the basic data by three-dimensional stratified sampling, balancing spatial, vertical elevation and temporal representations, as well as considering various conditions of the dam collapse. The method includes three progressive steps: Firstly, some impact factors of loss of life (IFL) are selected by literature survey, i.e., severity of dam break flood (S F), population at risk (P R), understanding of dam break (U B), warning time (T W) and evacuation condition (E C). And the other IFL of weather during dam break (W B), dam break mode (M B), water storage (S W), building vulnerability (V B), dam break time (T B) and average distance from affected area to dam (D D) are also taken into account to get a more comprehensive consideration. According to disaster system and disaster risk, these eleven IFL are divided into four categories. Through the improved entropy method, eight key IFL are further selected out of the eleven. Secondly, four L modules are built based on four categories, which are L-causing factor module (M 1), L-prone environment module (M 2), affected body module (M 3) and rescue condition module (M 4). Eventually, by using two methods of multivariate nonlinear regression and leave-one-out cross-validation in combination with coupled four modules, the calculation method for L is established. Compared with the results of Graham method and D&M method, the result of the proposed one is much closer to the actual value and performs better in fitting effect and regional applicability. In the application, L calculation and consequence assessment are carried out in the example of Hengjiang reservoir that has already broken down. At the same time, L calculation and risk prediction are used in the analysis of Yunshan reservoir, which is under planning. The proposed method can not only be applied to estimate L and its rate (f L ) under various types of dam break conditions in China, but also provide a reliable consequence assessment and prediction approach to reduce the risk of L. 相似文献